This week in earnings: Nvidia and Walmart

AI ceiling meets consumer floor – who wins?

Two reports. Two completely different stories. And together, they'll tell you more about where the market is headed than almost anything else this week.

Nvidia (NVDA) reports Wednesday after close. Walmart (WMT) reports Thursday before open. The AI maximalist thesis and the consumer spending reality check – arriving back to back.

Nvidia (NVDA)

The most anticipated earnings report of the quarter. Expectations are sky-high, and anything less than exceptional risks a selloff regardless of the raw numbers.

  • Earnings date: May 20, 2026 (after market close) – Q1 FY2027

  • Outlook: Bullish, but the bar is extremely high

  • Analyst view: Bloomberg consensus expects adjusted EPS of $1.77 and revenue of $78.9 billion – implying 79% year-on-year growth. Saxo Bank is direct: "After the recent AI surge, simply meeting revenue expectations may not be enough to move the market." Morningstar holds a $260 long-term fair value estimate, calling the stock modestly undervalued. At March's GTC conference, management expressed high confidence in $1 trillion in cumulative Blackwell and Rubin revenue between 2025 and 2027.

Key focus:

  • Data center revenue: consensus target ~$73.3 billion. Watch Blackwell demand ramp speed and early Rubin customer feedback.

  • Gross margin: ~75% adjusted gross margin expected. If it holds, it confirms Nvidia's pricing power and the tightness of supply – no one is close to displacing it.

  • Q2 guidance: The past playbook has been to crush analyst estimates. With this base so large, can management still drop guidance that surprises Wall Street? That's what keeps the stock from a short-term selloff.

Trade NVDA with USDT

Walmart (WMT)

The most reliable read on what American consumers are actually doing with their money – especially under sustained inflation pressure.

  • Earnings date: May 21, 2026 (pre-market) – Q1 FY2026

  • Outlook: Bullish

  • Analyst view: Zacks rates Walmart an "A" across all three Style Scores – Value, Growth, and Momentum – and projects Q1 EPS of $0.65 (up 6.56% year-on-year). Wall Street consensus expects US comparable store sales growth of ~3.9%, but some buy-side estimates are already running at 4.0–4.5%. The key question: was management's original Q1 EPS guidance of $0.61–$0.65 conservative?

Key focus:

  • High-margin business momentum: Watch Walmart Connect (advertising), Walmart+ memberships, and fulfillment services. These three have driven Walmart's operating profit growth ahead of revenue growth for three consecutive years.

  • US comparable store sales and consumer trends: Strong groceries and e-commerce with weak discretionary spending would confirm the "consumer trade-down" macro thesis.

  • Full-year guidance revision: Against freight and diesel cost headwinds, does management hold the full-year EPS guidance of $2.75–$2.85, or do they have enough confidence to raise it?

Trade WMT with USDT

Two reports, one question

Can Nvidia beat an already enormous bar on Rubin architecture expectations? Can Walmart hold its margin story against inflation headwinds? The answers live in the forward guidance each management team delivers.

Options markets are pricing in elevated volatility. Manage your risk accordingly going into this week.