PDD Q1 earnings preview

Revenue nears $16B, Goldman bullish on Temu

PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD) reports its Q1 2026 results this week. After a year defined by overseas tariff pressure, domestic e-commerce tax policy changes, and the announcement of its "New Pinmu" 100 billion RMB supply chain strategy, Wall Street's attention on this quarter is unusually high.

Here's a full breakdown of what to expect and what the top institutions are saying.

Key dates

  • Earnings release: May 27, 2026 (Wednesday), pre-market

  • Earnings call: 7:30am ET, May 27 (7:30pm Beijing time, May 27)

  • Wall Street consensus: Q1 revenue forecast ~109.4 billion RMB. Based on the latest Moomoo and Street estimates, this implies approximately 14.35% year-on-year growth. Some sell-side estimates put total revenue at around $16 billion. Q1 EPS forecast: ~¥14.71 (approximately $2.15 Non-GAAP EPS).

What the top institutions are saying

  • Goldman Sachs: Temu enters monetization, growth inflection arrives

Goldman's latest spring research note says Temu has officially moved past the pure subsidy phase and is entering full monetization. Goldman views this as the inflection point for PDD's overseas business. Despite regulatory and antitrust fine headwinds, Goldman argues that closing the regulatory overhang means the destructive price war is ending – and the long-term dividend increasingly tilts toward PDD.

  • Arete Research: Upgraded to Buy, deeply undervalued

With PDD's recent share price pullback (currently oscillating in the $97-$100 range), Arete Research raised its rating to Buy in early May with a $121 price target. Arete argues that PDD's long-term domestic and international market share capture ability remains intact, and with a forward P/E of just ~8x – over 30% below its 52-week high – the margin of safety is high.

  • Benchmark: Maintains $160 PT, deep long-term conviction

Benchmark kept its $160 price target in May, remaining highly bullish. Their view: Temu has built durable supply chain barriers in overseas markets, and short-term tariff and compliance costs cannot stop the underlying high-value repeat purchase logic.

  • Guosen Securities: New Pinmu suppresses near-term margins but builds long-term moat

Guosen flagged PDD's announcement of the "New Pinmu" strategy – a plan to invest 100 billion RMB over three years to build a self-operated cross-border brand portfolio. The result: significant quarter-to-quarter margin volatility will become the norm. Guosen revised its 2026 adjusted net profit forecast to 124.9 billion RMB but maintained its Outperform rating, citing PDD's supply chain focus as a durable competitive moat.

Three things to watch on Wednesday

  • Domestic ad monetization and subsidy rolloff. After pressure at end-2025, did domestic marketing services revenue re-accelerate in Q1 amid the consumer trade-down and value-seeking macro environment?

  • New Pinmu gross margin drag. PDD is shifting from asset-light platform to self-operated supply chain. Watch whether gross margin drops below the 55% threshold.

  • Temu overseas compliance and fine costs. SAMR and overseas regulators fined several major Chinese e-commerce companies between April and May (PDD's share: ~$528 million total). Did SG&A as a percentage of revenue stay in check?

Where PDD actually is at right now

PDD is in its "second founding" phase – giving up near-term profit perfection to pursue global supply chain dominance through New Pinmu. It's a highly profitable business dressed in traditional retail clothing, one that reinvests cash flow aggressively. The question this earnings season is whether the market will give it credit for that thesis.