Updated 1 min ago

US-Israel Strike on Iran · Day 72

Iran responds to ceasefire·Trump calls it unacceptable·Israel's secret base revealed

AI Overview:
Sentiment: Risk-off sentiment rising | Capital flowing to oil, gold, and BTC as hedges.
Fear Index (VIX)
17.2-1.4%
04/3005/0105/0405/0505/0605/0705/08
Panic Zone (>30)
Normal Zone (<20)
↓ How did it unfold? Check the timeline
How Did It Unfold?
02/28
US-Israel Airstrike on Iran

Israel strikes Tehran with US intel support. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed, ~40 officials dead.

03/01
Iran's Full-Scale Retaliation

Iran launches missiles/drones at US bases in Saudi, Qatar, UAE. Oil surges 25% in a day.

03/05
Iran Fires 500+ Missiles

Iran launches 500+ ballistic missiles, 2000 drones. 40% to Israel, 60% to US targets.

03/08
Mojtaba Khamenei Succeeds

Khamenei's son Mojtaba elected new Supreme Leader. IRGC pledges loyalty, vows to continue war.

03/09
Oil Over $100·War Escalates

Brent crude breaks $100, 2022 high. Israel bombs Tehran refinery again. Hormuz Strait threatened.

03/10
Hormuz Paralyzed·Oil Volatile

Israel destroys IRGC air HQ. Hormuz traffic near zero. Oil hits $119, then crashes to $80.

05/11
Iran Responds to Ceasefire

Iran submits response to US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan. Details not disclosed.

Today's Focus
10:00
Iran Submits Ceasefire Response via Pakistan · Iran's IRNA reports Tehran submitted its response to a US proposal to end the war via Pakistan.
12:00
Trump Calls Iran's Response Unacceptable · Former US President Trump calls Iran's response to the peace proposal "totally unacceptable," fraying ceasefire.
14:00
Netanyahu: War Not Over · Israeli PM Netanyahu says war with Iran "accomplished a great deal, but it's not over."
16:00
WSJ Reveals Israel's Secret Iran War Base · WSJ reports Israel built and defended a secret military base in Iraq for war against Iran.
↓ What assets to trade? See AI suggestions
What to Trade?
AI Advice:
Definitive: Long crude oil, Strait closure locks supply risk. Avoid: Equities amid war expansion & cost shock. Asymmetric: Gold may rebound after short-term overselling.
Safe Haven
Gold$4,697
24h-0.5%|Since Event-9.8%
OverweightWar safe-haven + central bank buying + geopolitical premium, $4,697 still has room
Crude Oil$98.30
24h+3.0%|Since Event+50.3%
BuyHormuz Strait blockade risk + 20% of global oil supply threatened
Risk Assets
BTC$82.3K
24h+2.0%|Since Event+21.1%
HoldConsolidating near $82.3K, safe-haven pressure but on-chain holdings stable
S&P 500$7399
24h+0.5%|Since Event+6.5%
HoldEnergy cost shock + war spreading to Gulf states, risk appetite extremely low
↓ How does the market predict? See live bets
Market Predictions
Will there be a ceasefire in 14 days?
Yes
22%
No
78%
Participants 26,700 · Pool Size $4.8M
Markets heavily discount a near-term ceasefire.
Will crude oil reach $120?
Yes
45%
No
55%
Participants 17,800 · Pool Size $3.2M
Geopolitical tensions may push oil prices higher, but uncertainty remains.
Will Iran block Strait of Hormuz?
Yes
35%
No
65%
Participants 11,700 · Pool Size $2.1M
Markets see low probability of Iran blocking the Strait.
↓ Any MEME opportunities? Check trending tokens
MEME Opportunities
AI Narrative Insight:
US-Iran war fuels PolitiFi sector breakout, $GMAR leads as geopolitical sentiment token (MC $185.9M)
$GMARSOL
HotNew+358,681.0%
Market Cap $185.9M
OSOL
New+77.8%
Market Cap $49.5K
WSOL
0.0%
Market Cap $1.2M
G
-0.6%
Market Cap $683.6M·KOL Holdings 36
$XAUSOL
-1.7%
Market Cap $79.6K