CLARITY Act signed by 2026?

31%. That's the prediction market's latest probability that the CLARITY Act is signed into law in 2026 – down sharply from a prior high near 82%. Bipartisan talks are still moving, so why has the market cut its expectations so hard?

What the CLARITY Act is

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) aims to draw a clear line between SEC and CFTC oversight of digital assets and set a federal framework for trading platforms and other crypto intermediaries. The House passed it 294–134 in July 2025. In the Senate, talks turned to consumer protection, anti-money-laundering rules, developer liability, and officials' crypto conflicts of interest.

Why the odds fell

The near-term outlook weakened over the weekend. Per CryptoSlate on August 2, CLARITY-related business dropped off the Senate's Monday agenda – and the chamber may be only about 5 working days from recess.

Last week, Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego floated a bipartisan ethics compromise to win Democratic support, but the White House is still reviewing it and Trump's position is undecided. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pressed for a vote, warning that delay could push crypto firms and capital abroad – a strong signal, but not locked votes.

Why only 31%?

The contract isn't pricing whether the bill eventually passes. It's pricing whether both chambers can reconcile, hold a formal vote, and get a presidential signature before December 31, 2026. A delay at any step closes the window.

What to watch next

Four signals: whether the bill returns to the Senate agenda, whether the White House accepts the ethics proposal, whether remaining provisions reach compromise, and whether Democrats supply enough votes to hit the 60 needed for a procedural vote.

Check live probabilities and explore Predictions in Bitget Wallet.