S&P 500 wipes out war losses in 7 weeks

The S&P 500 dropped over 7% between late February and mid-March, falling from $6,878 to around $6,343. Historically, a pullback of that size takes three to six months to fully recover. This time it took seven weeks. The index is back above $7,000.

Not because the bad news disappeared. Because the market decided to stop pricing it in.

Wall Street moved on from the Middle East

Oil prices, inflation fears, geopolitical risk – these dominated headlines for months. Then quietly, they stopped driving price action.

The reason is straightforward: WTI crude has pulled back over 15% from its peak, inflation came in softer than feared, and as investors reassessed whether the conflict was actually damaging corporate earnings, the answer turned out to be: not really. When the fundamental thesis for selling breaks down, the selling stops.

BlackRock and UBS said it out loud

In early April, both BlackRock and UBS published bullish outlooks on US equities, with particular conviction on tech and AI-related names.

BlackRock noted that historical patterns around geopolitical shocks consistently show markets reasserting themselves once the acute phase passes. UBS pointed out that S&P 500 pullbacks in the 5%–10% range have historically recovered within six months the vast majority of the time – and this recovery took seven weeks. Together, these two institutions manage over $6 trillion in assets. When they signal it's time to buy, capital tends to follow.

AI is back in the driver's seat

The MAG7 – Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla – are back at the center of market conversation.

AI capital expenditure plans from the major tech companies never actually contracted during the conflict period; they were simply deprioritized by a market focused on macro risk. Now that focus has shifted, the repricing is happening fast.

QQQ recovered in the same window as SPY, confirming that this is a tech-led rebound, not a broad defensive rotation.

What history says about what comes next

The Gulf War, September 11, the early Ukraine conflict – every major geopolitical shock in S&P 500 history follows the same pattern. Sharp selloff in the acute phase, faster-than-expected recovery in the digestion phase. This cycle played out in textbook fashion, only faster than usual.

Track live prices and positions on SPY, QQQ, and the MAG7 and position for what comes next directly in Bitget Wallet.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research before trading.