This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pete Hegseth out

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.

A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump out

Trump out as President before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

June 30, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

March 31, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31, 2026

Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

December 31, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Impeachment

Will Trump be impeached by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.

Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. 

The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.

Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. 

The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

July 17

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.

Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.

The following will qualify as a shutdown:

- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")

The following will not qualify as a shutdown:

- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 12

Government shutdown by...?

This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.

If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the United States Senate or official announcements from the caucus organization of the relevant party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

John Thune

John Barrasso

Tom Cotton

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered.

In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order.

In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pete Hegseth

Nobody

Donald Trump

Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution between market creation and February 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after February 1, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?

This market will resolve according to the exact number of bills and joint resolutions Donald Trump vetoes between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after December 31, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify.

Each vetoed bill or joint resolution counts as one veto, whether or not Congress later overrides it.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

20-24

How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

July 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

September 30

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is impeached and removed from the office of President of the United States by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Impeachment means the U.S. House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Donald Trump. Removal means the U.S. Senate votes to convict Donald Trump on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the U.S. Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. The conviction will be considered to occur at the time of that announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes, and partial vote tallies will not qualify.

This market will resolve to “Yes” upon a qualifying conviction, regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Donald Trump vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction.

Impeachment without a Senate conviction will not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment will not, on its own, resolve this market. A transfer of presidential powers to the Vice President under the 25th Amendment will not qualify and will not count as leaving office.

If Donald Trump formally leaves the office of President of the United States for any reason before a qualifying conviction, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. An announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump impeached and removed before 2028?

This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Katherine Clark

Pete Aguilar

Hakeem Jeffries

House Majority Leader of the next Congress?

The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress is elected on the first ballot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. A candidate is elected when the Clerk announces that they have received a majority of the votes cast for a person by name on that ballot.

If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Any individual elected to be, appointed to be, or serving as Speaker pro tempore in the 120th congress will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is sworn in into office as a United States Senator representing the seat currently held by Dan Sullivan (Class II) on or before January 5, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate is considered sworn in when the oath of office is administered to them on the floor of the United States Senate, as recorded in the Congressional Record.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Senate, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Alaska Senator sworn in by January 5?

This market will resolve according to the exact number of Donald Trump's vetoes that Congress overrides between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

A veto will be considered overridden once both the House of Representatives and the Senate pass the vetoed bill or joint resolution by the two-thirds vote required under Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution. An override will be considered to have occurred on the date the second chamber completes its vote, regardless of when the veto was issued. An override vote by only one chamber will not qualify.

Each overridden bill or joint resolution counts as one override.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official congressional voting records, including Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Post Election