This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Gavin Newsom

Kamala Harris

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

J.D. Vance

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.


Ken Paxton

John Cornyn

Dawn Buckingham

Texas Senate Primary Deriv

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Greg Hull

Duke Rodriguez

Doug Turner

New Mexico Governor Republican Primary Winner

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Paxton 9%+

Paxton 6–9%

Cornyn <3%

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Jersey.

If no 2026 New Jersey Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Jersey Republican party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Alex Zdan

Richard Tabor

Robert Lebovics

New Jersey Republican Senate Primary Winner

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Xavier Becerra

Steve Hilton

Tom Steyer

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

California Governor Primary Election: First Place

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Abdul El-Sayed

Mallory McMorrow

Haley Stevens

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Paul LePage

James Clark

ME-02 Republican Primary Winner

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ken Paxton withdraws from or officially announces his withdrawal from the 2026 Texas Senate Republican Primary election, or announces the suspension of his 2026 Senate campaign, by May 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Ken Paxton or his official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Ken Paxton drop out?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Jay Feely

Joseph Chaplik

Jason Duey

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.

In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Dem-Rep

Dem-Dem

Rep-Rep

Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

John Braun

Antony Barran

WA-03 Primary Winners

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Byron Donalds

James Fishback

Jay Collins

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Lindsey Graham

Mark Lynch

Paul Dans

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.


Randy Feenstra

Zach Lahn

Adam Steen

Iowa Governor Republican Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma.

If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Kevin Hern

John M. O’Connor

Wayne Lonny Washington

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Analilia Mejia

Joseph Lewis

Donald Cresitello

NJ-11 Democratic Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Tom Sell

Abraham Enriquez

Ryan Zink

TX-19 Republican Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Deb Haaland

Sam Bregman

Ken Miyagishima

New Mexico Governor Democratic Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Elaine Luria

Burk Stringfellow

Matt Strickler

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 32nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 32nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Brad Sherman

Larry Thompson

Chris Ahuja

CA-32 Primary Winners

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.