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Politics
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Fed Decision in July?
$88.3M vol.
74%
No change25%
25 bps increasePresidential Election Winner 2028
$669.6M vol.
20%
JD Vance14%
Marco RubioDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.2B vol.
20%
Gavin Newsom15%
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezElon Musk # tweets July 17 - July 24, 2026?
$3M vol.
72%
200-21921%
180-199Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
$20.2M vol.
<1%
Yes99%
NoIran leader end of 2026?
$34.2M vol.
72%
Mojtaba Khamenei8%
No Head of StateWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$46.5M vol.
29%
Yes72%
NoFed Decision in September?
$4.2M vol.
52%
25 bps increase41%
No changeElon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026?
$1.1M vol.
20%
220-23919%
240-259Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
$702.4K vol.
43%
Yes58%
NoRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
$678.2M vol.
43%
J.D. Vance28%
Marco RubioStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
$1.9M vol.
12%
Yes89%
NoNext French Presidential Election
$115.7M vol.
32%
Marine Le Pen27%
Édouard PhilippeStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$5.8M vol.
52%
Yes49%
NoClarity Act signed into law in 2026?
$2.4M vol.
37%
Yes64%
NoElon Musk # tweets July 23 - July 25, 2026?
$246.1K vol.
50%
65-8931%
40-64Iran leadership change by...?
$20.3M vol.
40%
June 30, 202728%
December 31Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
$1M vol.
5%
Yes96%
NoPutin out as President of Russia by...?
$18.3M vol.
17%
June 30, 20279%
December 31, 2026Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$22.9M vol.
11%
Yes90%
NoIran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
$8M vol.
20%
August 1510%
July 31US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
$787K vol.
43%
August 3130%
August 15Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?
$340K vol.
53%
August 3124%
July 31Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026?
$300.2K vol.
16%
180-19915%
160-179